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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently serves as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement wins the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest surprise.

But this year's field is distinctly different. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent also-rans improving together. During an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

This is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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